While our commentaries are normally edited prior to distribution, Lowe Wealth Advisors felt that providing insight sooner than later was most important. The below commentary is unedited.
The downward pressure in the global equity markets of the past few weeks has continued into June. These declines are largely attributable to three factors:
- News out of China that their economy continues to slow.
- Poor numbers related to domestic manufacturing and orders.
- Worse than expected US jobs data.
We are carefully studying the data and will have more to say next week about any potential strategic shifts which could be appropriate. Please bear in mind that in many of our actively managed allocations we have sought to avoid exposure to European equity markets. We have focused on large dividend paying domestic stocks, which we believe have the potential to be somewhat less volatile based on the current global situation.
With the poor data that was released today, we expect talk of another round of Quantitative Easing (QE3) might begin yet again. We are also looking for discussion about Ireland and Greece stabilizing somewhat in the short-term and for China to consider an economic stimulus package.
If discussions gain traction related to these three issues the domestic markets could potentially stabilize in the short-term.
However, Lowe Wealth Advisors recognizes that there appear to be significant potential headwinds especially as we look toward 2013. Those headwinds would include the possible expiration of current tax cuts, federally mandated budget cuts and a weakening domestic economy. If these events come to pass, Lowe Wealth Advisors believes the potential for a recession in 2013 could be significant.
Clearly there are many unknowns which will unfold between now and the end of 2012. If there was additional stimulus in the form of a QE3 (Lowe Wealth Advisors is not advocating for this strategy, rather we are stating our opinion about the potential short-term impact) or if Europe and China stabilize in a meaningful way, we could become more optimistic.
For us, we still believe that any sustainable recovery is about jobs and jobs growth. If manufacturing and orders decline a possible outcome could be reduced hiring. This could add further downward pressure to an already poor job creation market.
While may of Lowe Wealth Advisors’ strategies are designed for a 1 to 3 year time horizon, we will be reviewing the unfolding situation and will update you if any strategic shifts are appropriate. If you have not already done so, we would suggest that you view a video we asked economist Anirban Basu to provide for Lowe fs clients. Please click here to view the video.
Finally, expect a great deal of “drama and panic” on TV and the internet over the weekend. Keep in mind that the Media’s goal is to get you to keep watching and they do this by making you uncomfortable. We hope you can have a relaxing weekend knowing that Lowe Wealth Advisors is reviewing the data for you. We will keep you informed of important issues that relate to your situation.
We hope this is helpful. Lowe Wealth Advisors will provide an update early next week.
Harold, Greg, Dave and Jen
Lowe Wealth Advisors is an SEC registered investment adviser with its principal place of business in the State of Maryland. Lowe Wealth Advisors and its representatives are in compliance with the current notice filing and registration requirements imposed upon registered investment advisers by those states in which Lowe Wealth Advisors maintain clients. Lowe Wealth Advisors may only transact business in those states in which it is registered, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration requirements. For information pertaining to the registration status of Lowe Wealth Advisors, please contact Lowe Wealth Advisors, or refer to the Investment Adviser Public Disclosure web site (www.adviserinfo.sec.gov).
This commentary is intended for the dissemination of general information regarding market conditions to Lowe Wealth Advisors clients. The information contained herein should not be construed as personalized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and there is no guarantee that the views and opinions expressed in this report will come to pass. While any general market information and statistical data contained herein are based on sources believed to be reliable, we do not represent that it is accurate and should not be relied on as such or be the basis for an investment decision. Any opinions expressed are current only as of the time made and are subject to change without notice.
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